Faculty of Public Health - Andalas University - OCS, 13th IEA SEA Meeting and ICPH - SDev

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Estimation of risk of first episode of graft dysfunction: A biostatistical modeling approach
Sonam Bedi, Chandra Mani Pandey, Raj Kumar Sharma, Sada Nand Dwivedi

Last modified: 2018-09-16



In India, both prevalence and incidence of chronic kidney disease is on rise. Renal replacement therapy is the best choice of treatment but graft dysfunction poses major threats to allograft survival. The first episode of graft dysfunction is very crucial to manage cases in preventing graft rejections subsequently enhancing the allograft survival. The current paper aims to estimate the risk of first episode of acute graft dysfunction using biostatistical modeling.

Material and Methods

227 kidney transplant cases with one year follow up were considered. The acute dysfunction was considered if serum creatinine rise was ³30% of the previous level.


Exponential distributions with varied risk rate provided precise estimates of the parameters indicating almost 10% of the cases lied in the high risk of acute dysfunction. The risk difference between high and low risk groups of acute graft dysfunctions was 25 times.


The model with varied risk of graft dysfunction can be used to estimate the risk of dysfunction that will be standardized indicator to compare different caring set ups at different time points and type of patients as well. Estimates can also be utilized to plan the monitoring and suitable interventions on time.